Royal Challengers BengaluruversusMumbai Indians

11 Mar 2025 · T20

Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 11 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs199/3 Mumbai Indians20.0 overs188/9 Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 38%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 0% to 61%).

Biggest swings

3.4: HK Matthews to S Meghana, S Meghana out. Mumbai Indians up from 37% to 46%.
2nd inns 3.3: S Rana to HK Matthews, HK Matthews out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 71% to 80%.
2nd inns 14.5: EA Perry to NR Sciver-Brunt, NR Sciver-Brunt out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 81% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru199/3 Mumbai Indians188/9

Innings 1