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Women's T20 Pentangular Series (in Japan) · 2025 · Women
8 Jun 2025 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 29%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (Hong Kong: 0% to 85%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Milescaught · A Chandel · A Fujikawa 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Chandel · b A Fujikawa | 17 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 77.27 |
| Kary Chancaught · A Chandel · A Kato-Stafford 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Chandel · b A Kato-Stafford | 36 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 109.09 |
| Y Daswanicaught · H Iwasaki · E Toguchi-Quinn 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · H Iwasaki · b E Toguchi-Quinn | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| M Bibicaught · H Goto · A Fujikawa 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · H Goto · b A Fujikawa | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| SYD Chanlbw · E Toguchi-Quinn 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b E Toguchi-Quinn | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| caught · H Iwasaki · b E Toguchi-Quinn |
| 3 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Emma Laicaught · A Kano · E Toguchi-Quinn 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Kano · b E Toguchi-Quinn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Wai Siurun out · H Iwasaki, A Kano · Kurumi Ota 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · H Iwasaki, A Kano | 11 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 73.33 |
|---|
| K Mahekdeepstumped · A Kano · A Kato-Stafford 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · A Kano · b A Kato-Stafford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Chan Ka Mancaught · Mai Yanagida · E Toguchi-Quinn 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mai Yanagida · b E Toguchi-Quinn | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| A Kanwalnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Chandel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| A Kato-Stafford1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| A Fujikawa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Nonoha Yasumoto0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| E Toguchi-Quinn0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 3.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Kurumi Ota0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-43 (Natasha Miles, 7.3) · 2-48 (Y Daswani, 8.4) · 3-49 (M Bibi, 9.2) · 4-54 (SYD Chan, 10.2) · 5-63 (Hiu Ying Cheung, 12.3) · 6-64 (Emma Lai, 12.4) · 7-64 (Kary Chan, 13.1) · 8-64 (K Mahekdeep, 13.2) · 9-65 (Chan Ka Man, 14.3) · 10-77 (M Wai Siu, 18.0)
Recorded target: 100 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 24/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 31/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 42/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 43/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 49/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 53/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 59/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 63/4 |
| 13 | 1 | 64/6 |
| 14 | 0 | 64/8 |
| 15 | 1 | 65/9 |
| 16 | 5 | 70/9 |
| 17 | 3 | 73/9 |
| 18 | 4 | 77/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.