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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
19 Feb 2024 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 49%; Namibia batted first.
Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Netherlands: 44% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Pierre Kotzebowled · Aryan Dutt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aryan Dutt | 5 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Niko Davincaught · Max O'Dowd · Kyle Klein 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Kyle Klein | 13 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 72.22 |
| Michael van Lingenlbw · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aryan Dutt | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · Aryan Dutt 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · b Aryan Dutt | 13 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 118.18 |
| Jan Frylincklbw · Aryan Dutt 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aryan Dutt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Noah Croes · b Max O'Dowd |
| 26 |
| 46 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 56.52 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatonbowled · Aryan Dutt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aryan Dutt | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Zane Greencaught · Noah Croes · Aryan Dutt 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Noah Croes · b Aryan Dutt | 19 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 65.52 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmannstumped · Scott Edwards · Roelof van der Merwe 0 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Scott Edwards · b Roelof van der Merwe | 20 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 51.28 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtzbowled · Kyle Klein 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kyle Klein | 12 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| Tangeni Lungameninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Kingma1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Klein0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.1 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 4.06 | 1 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 34 | 6 | 3.78 | 2 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Bas de Leede0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Max O'Dowd0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 5 | 0 |
1-20 (Niko Davin, 7.3) · 2-25 (Michael van Lingen, 8.2) · 3-26 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 9.0) · 4-30 (Jan Frylinck, 10.3) · 5-44 (Gerhard Erasmus, 12.2) · 6-44 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 13.0) · 7-74 (Zane Green, 20.4) · 8-94 (JJ Smit, 27.5) · 9-118 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 33.4) · 10-123 (Bernard Scholtz, 35.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 13/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 15/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 20/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 24/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 26/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 30/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 36/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 40/4 |
| 13 | 4 | 44/6 |
| 14 | 1 | 45/6 |
| 15 | 2 | 47/6 |
| 16 | 5 | 52/6 |
| 17 | 1 | 53/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 56/6 |
| 19 | 6 | 62/6 |
| 20 | 8 | 70/6 |
| 21 | 6 | 76/7 |
| 22 | 1 | 77/7 |
| 23 | 2 | 79/7 |
| 24 | 2 | 81/7 |
| 25 | 1 | 82/7 |
| 26 | 9 | 91/7 |
| 27 | 3 | 94/7 |
| 28 | 5 | 99/8 |
| 29 | 1 | 100/8 |
| 30 | 11 | 111/8 |
| 31 | 3 | 114/8 |
| 32 | 1 | 115/8 |
| 33 | 1 | 116/8 |
| 34 | 2 | 118/9 |
| 35 | 5 | 123/9 |
| 36 | 0 | 123/10 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
