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Nepal v West Indies T20I Series · 2025 · Men
29 Sept 2025 · T20
Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 72%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 51%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Andrewbowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Mohammad Aadil Alam | 6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Karan KC | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Ackeem Augustebowled · Mohammad Aadil Alam 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Aadil Alam | 17 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 80.95 |
| Amir Jangoocaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Mohammad Aadil Alam 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught |
| 16 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 114.29 |
0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 21 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Fabian Allenbowled · Kushal Bhurtel 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kushal Bhurtel | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseincaught · Mohammad Aadil Alam · Kushal Bhurtel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Aadil Alam · b Kushal Bhurtel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Navin Bidaiseecaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Mohammad Aadil Alam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Mohammad Aadil Alam | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Zishan Motaracaught · Karan KC · Kushal Bhurtel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karan KC · b Kushal Bhurtel | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Jediah Bladesnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 4 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2.1 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 7.38 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 4.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-4 (J Andrew, 2.2) · 2-5 (Keacy Carty, 3.2) · 3-23 (Kyle Mayers, 7.3) · 4-38 (Ackeem Auguste, 9.5) · 5-63 (Amir Jangoo, 11.5) · 6-74 (Fabian Allen, 13.2) · 7-74 (Akeal Hosein, 13.5) · 8-79 (Navin Bidaisee, 15.5) · 9-81 (Jason Holder, 16.2) · 10-83 (Zishan Motara, 17.1)
Recorded target: 174 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 6/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 7/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 16/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 20/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 28/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 35/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 41/4 |
| 11 | 16 | 57/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 64/5 |
| 13 | 10 | 74/5 |
| 14 | 0 | 74/7 |
| 15 | 2 | 76/7 |
| 16 | 4 | 80/8 |
| 17 | 3 | 83/9 |
| 18 | 0 | 83/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Kyle Mayers: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Aadil Alam: Madhesh Province Cricket · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.