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Asian Games Women's Qualifier · 2026 · Women
26 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Indonesia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Indonesia started on 65%; Indonesia batted first.
Indonesia's chances ranged from 17% to 73% during the match (China: 27% to 83%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Winda Prastinibowled · Ma Ruike 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ma Ruike | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| RD Pangestutibowled · Ma Ruike 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ma Ruike | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| NLKWR Dewirun out · M Zhu · Zhao Yihan 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · M Zhu | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| NPAN Sakarinilbw · Jiaping Li 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jiaping Li | 37 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 80.43 |
| NMP Suwandewistumped · J Chunquin · Zhao Yihan 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · J Chunquin · b Zhao Yihan | 15 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 125.00 |
| NKF Rada Ranirun out · Ma Ruike · M Zhu0 fours · 0 sixes |
| run out · Ma Ruike |
| 4 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 57.14 |
| D Wulandarirun out · Ma Ruike · Ma Ruike 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ma Ruike | 10 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| KS Kassebowled · Wang Huiying 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wang Huiying | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| SAN Mayprianicaught · M Zhu · Wang Huiying 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Zhu · b Wang Huiying | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| NK Arianinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| DAL Paramithanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ma Ruike1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
| M Zhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Wang Huiying0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Zhao Yihan0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Jiaping Li0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Cai Yuzhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (RD Pangestuti, 0.3) · 2-6 (K Winda Prastini, 3.0) · 3-16 (NLKWR Dewi, 6.4) · 4-64 (NPAN Sakarini, 13.5) · 5-64 (NMP Suwandewi, 14.1) · 6-78 (NKF Rada Rani, 17.1) · 7-80 (KS Kasse, 18.2) · 8-81 (SAN Maypriani, 18.5) · 9-82 (D Wulandari, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 6/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 8/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 13/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 15/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 18/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 22/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 27/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 28/3 |
| 11 | 13 | 41/3 |
| 12 | 9 | 50/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 57/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 64/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 66/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 69/5 |
| 17 | 8 | 77/5 |
| 18 | 3 | 80/6 |
| 19 | 1 | 81/8 |
| 20 | 1 | 82/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.