NorthamptonshireversusBirmingham Bears

11 Jun 2025 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 10 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs184/6 Birmingham Bears20.0 overs174/8 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 55%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Birmingham Bears is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (Birmingham Bears: 0% to 76%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.1: J Broad to MM Ali, six by MM Ali. Birmingham Bears up from 59% to 76%.
2nd inns 16.6: J Broad to EG Barnard, EG Barnard out. Northamptonshire up from 35% to 54%.
2nd inns 17.6: GLS Scrimshaw to MM Ali, four by MM Ali. Birmingham Bears up from 26% to 45%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire184/6 Birmingham Bears174/8

Innings 1