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Photo: Escpl
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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West Indies tour of India · 2026/27 · Men
6 Oct 2026 · T20
Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 17%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 28% during the match (India: 72% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shai Hopecaught · Axar Patel · Naman Dhir6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Axar Patel · b Naman Dhir | 52 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 140.54 |
| Kamil Pooranbowled · Arshdeep Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arshdeep Singh | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 109.09 |
 Shimron Hetmyerrun out · Sanju Samson, Shreyas Iyer · Axar Patel1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sanju Samson, Shreyas Iyer | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
| Rovman Powellbowled · Axar Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Axar Patel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sherfane Rutherford |
| caught · Naman Dhir · b Mayank Yadav |
| 56 |
| 34 |
| 6 |
| 3 |
| 164.71 |
 Roston Chaselbw · Kuldeep Yadav1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kuldeep Yadav | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdcaught · Tilak Varma · Naman Dhir 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tilak Varma · b Naman Dhir | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordecaught · Ishan Kishan · Kuldeep Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Kuldeep Yadav | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Shamar Springercaught · Axar Patel · Naman Dhir 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Axar Patel · b Naman Dhir | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 128.57 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseincaught · Ishan Kishan · Axar Patel 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Axar Patel | 15 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Mayank Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Axar Patel1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 8.21 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Naman Dhir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-38 (Kamil Pooran, 4.3) · 2-44 (Shimron Hetmyer, 5.2) · 3-44 (Rovman Powell, 5.5) · 4-107 (Shai Hope, 11.4) · 5-114 (Roston Chase, 12.3) · 6-121 (Romario Shepherd, 13.2) · 7-124 (Matthew Forde, 14.1) · 8-135 (Shamar Springer, 15.5) · 9-171 (Sherfane Rutherford, 18.5) · 10-171 (Akeal Hosein, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 16 | 21/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 28/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 44/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 44/3 |
| 7 | 9 | 53/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 61/3 |
| 9 | 15 | 76/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 82/3 |
| 11 | 18 | 100/3 |
| 12 | 9 | 109/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 115/5 |
| 14 | 9 | 124/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 127/7 |
| 16 | 8 | 135/8 |
| 17 | 10 | 145/8 |
| 18 | 15 | 160/8 |
| 19 | 11 | 171/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 171/10 |
Sanju Samson: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ishan Kishan: Tata Ipl 2022 · CC BY 3.0
Tilak Varma: Buchi Babu Sana · CC BY 4.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
