MalaysiaversusThailand

29 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 70 runs

Malaysia20.0 overs160/9 Thailand20.0 overs90/8 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

82%Malaysia18%Thailand

Why

In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Malaysia won 7 and Thailand won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Thailand (1,505 vs 1,397 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 81%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 81% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 19%).

Biggest swings

1.3: K Senamontree to Aslam Khan, six by Aslam Khan. Malaysia up from 81% to 85%.
2.3: W Ngowhuad to Syed Aziz, Syed Aziz out. Thailand up from 11% to 15%.
19.6: W Ngowhuad to Muhammad Wafiq, four by Muhammad Wafiq. Malaysia up from 88% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia160/9 Thailand90/8

Innings 2

Thailand

90/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Akshaykumar Yadavcaught · Pavandeep Singh · Syed Aziz 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Pavandeep Singh · b Syed Aziz	4	16	0	0	25.00
Chaloemwong Chatphaisancaught · Virandeep Singh · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Virandeep Singh · b Pavandeep Singh	0	1	0	0	0.00
Y Saranonnakkunbowled · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Pavandeep Singh	0	1	0	0	0.00
S Desungnoencaught · Ainool Hafizs · Muhammad Wafiq 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ainool Hafizs · b Muhammad Wafiq	16	16	2	0	100.00
Austin Lazaruscaught · Pavandeep Singh · Virandeep Singh 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Pavandeep Singh · b Virandeep Singh	23	19	3

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Pavandeep Singh0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	3	6.25	5
Syed Aziz1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	1	3.50	2
Muhammad Wafiq1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	1	3.50	1
Virandeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	2	3.50	1
Vijay Unni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	1	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/2
2	1	3/2
3	6	9/2
4	0	9/3
5	12	21/3
6	12	33/3
7	8	41/3
8	4	45/3
9	4	49/4
10	3	52/5
11	0	52/5
12	5	57/6
13	8	65/6
14	2	67/6
15	9	76/6
16	5	81/7
17	1	82/7
18	4	86/7
19	2	88/8
20	2	90/8

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