LesothoversusMozambique

20 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Lesotho won by 74 runs

Lesotho20.0 overs169/8 Mozambique18.2 overs95/10 Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Mozambique more likely to win

19%Lesotho81%Mozambique

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Mozambique rate stronger than Lesotho (1,399 vs 1,243 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Mozambique won 4 and Lesotho won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lesotho started on 18%; Lesotho batted first.

Lesotho’s chance of winning (%) · Mozambique is the rest

Lesotho's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (Mozambique: 0% to 91%).

Biggest swings

1.4: LA Simango to LJ Leokaoke, LJ Leokaoke out. Mozambique up from 81% to 91%.
2nd inns 4.1: TD Chaoana to LI Salomone, LI Salomone out. Lesotho up from 61% to 72%.
2nd inns 8.6: M Khauta to FFZ Nhaduate, FFZ Nhaduate out. Lesotho up from 77% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lesotho169/8 Mozambique95/10

Innings 2

Mozambique

95/1018.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mozambique batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Joao Houcaught · Inshaf Farook · M Devush Patel 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Inshaf Farook · b M Devush Patel	49	45	3	3	108.89
LI Salomonebowled · Ts'episo Chaoana 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ts'episo Chaoana	9	13	1	0	69.23
Jose Bulelerun out · TA Khetsi, Chachole Tlali · M Khauta 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · TA Khetsi, Chachole Tlali	2	9	0	0	22.22
FFZ Nhaduatebowled · M Khauta 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Khauta	5	6	1	0	83.33
VE Temborun out · Chachole Tlali · M Khauta 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Chachole Tlali	1	2	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ts'episo Chaoana0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	14	1	4.67	1	1
Inshaf Farook0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	23	1	6.90	1	0
M Khauta0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	2	4.67	4	0
Lefulere Monanthane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	0	4.33	0	0
Gladwin Thamae0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	14	2	4.67	0	1
M Devush Patel0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	12	2	4.00	4	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	3	10/0
3	2	12/0
4	12	24/0
5	5	29/1
6	9	38/1
7	1	39/2
8	9	48/2
9	10	58/3
10	2	60/3
11	3	63/5
12	2	65/5
13	8	73/6
14	8	81/7
15	2	83/8
16	4	87/9
17	4	91/9
18	4	95/9
19	0	95/10

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