EnglandversusNew Zealand

19 Mar 2024 · T20

University Oval, Dunedin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 27 runs

England20.0 overs160/4 New Zealand20.0 overs133/5 University Oval, Dunedin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

71%England29%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,684 vs 1,572 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 8 and New Zealand won 2
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 68%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

England's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 33%).

Biggest swings

4.4: FC Jonas to TT Beaumont, TT Beaumont out. New Zealand up from 26% to 32%.
2nd inns 0.3: LK Bell to IC Gaze, IC Gaze out. England up from 85% to 90%.
2nd inns 8.6: S Glenn to GE Plimmer, GE Plimmer out. England up from 78% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England160/4 New Zealand133/5

Innings 1

England

160/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tammy Beaumontcaught · Hannah Rowe · Fran Jonas 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hannah Rowe · b Fran Jonas	15	14	3	0	107.14
Sophia Dunkleycaught · Izzy Gaze · Lea Tahuhu 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Izzy Gaze · b Lea Tahuhu	32	24	6	0	133.33
Maia Bouchiernot out 3 fours · 0 sixes	not out	43*	40	3	0	107.50
Heather Knightstumped · Izzy Gaze · Jess Kerr 8 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Izzy Gaze · b Jess Kerr	63	39	8	1

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0
Hannah Rowe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	0	9.67	0
Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	0	7.50	2
Fran Jonas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0
Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	0
Suzie Bates0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	4	10/0
3	8	18/0
4	5	23/0
5	5	28/1
6	13	41/1
7	14	55/1
8	6	61/2
9	5	66/2
10	6	72/2
11	7	79/2
12	13	92/2
13	11	103/2
14	6	109/2
15	7	116/2
16	8	124/2
17	7	131/2
18	18	149/2
19	5	154/3
20	6	160/4

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