RwandaversusKenya

3 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Rwanda won by 52 runs

Rwanda20.0 overs95/5 Kenya15.3 overs43/10 Gahanga B Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kenya more likely to win

44%Rwanda56%Kenya

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Kenya won 3 and Rwanda won 0
Rwanda are playing at home in Rwanda
On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Rwanda (1,524 vs 1,522 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rwanda started on 42%; Rwanda batted first.

Rwanda’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Rwanda's chances ranged from 31% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 69%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.4: MD Bimenyimana to E Wachira, E Wachira out. Rwanda up from 56% to 69%.
2nd inns 8.3: A Ikuzwe to V Ooko, V Ooko out. Rwanda up from 56% to 71%.
2nd inns 8.4: A Ikuzwe to C Muthoni, C Muthoni out. Rwanda up from 71% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rwanda95/5 Kenya43/10

Innings 2

Kenya

43/1015.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kenya batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Queentor Abellbw · B Murekatete 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b B Murekatete	0	2	0	0	0.00
E Wachirarun out · Marie Bimenyimana, A Ikuzwe · Marie Bimenyimana 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Marie Bimenyimana, A Ikuzwe	4	22	0	0	18.18
V Abugabowled · B Murekatete 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b B Murekatete	0	3	0	0	0.00
V Ookolbw · A Ikuzwe 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b A Ikuzwe	18	18	3	0	100.00
L Idambocaught · M Uwase · A Ikuzwe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Uwase · b A Ikuzwe	4	10	0	0	40.00
C Muthonicaught · C Uwase · A Ikuzwe0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
B Murekatete2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	2	2	2	0.67	1
Rosine Irera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	4	0	2.00	1
Henriette Ishimwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	9	0	3.00	0
Marie Bimenyimana1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	5	0	2.50	0
A Ikuzwe0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	0	12	5	3.43	3
J Nyirankundineza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	8	0	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/2
2	1	3/2
3	2	5/2
4	3	8/2
5	6	14/2
6	0	14/3
7	2	16/3
8	5	21/3
9	9	30/5
10	5	35/5
11	2	37/6
12	3	40/7
13	0	40/7
14	1	41/8
15	2	43/8
16	0	43/10

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