**Melbourne Cricket Ground**
Photo: Electricmaster
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Women's Ashes · 2024/25 · Women

EnglandversusAustralia

30 Jan 2025 · Test

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 122 runs

England71.4 overs170/10 Australia130.3 overs440/10 England68.4 overs148/10 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

17%England30%Draw53%Australia

Why

Australia are playing at home in Australia
On results in Tests so far, Australia rate stronger than England (1,528 vs 1,459 on our results rating)
In the last 10 Tests between these sides, Australia won 3 and England won 2 (5 drawn)

Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

England170/10 Australia440/10 England148/10

Innings 2

Australia

440/10130.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Bell 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Bell	45	127	5	0	35.43
Georgia Vollcaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Bell 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Bell	12	16	2	0	75.00
Annabel Sutherlandbowled · Ryana MacDonald-Gay 21 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Ryana MacDonald-Gay	163	258	21	1	63.18

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Lauren Bell3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	25.0	3	94	2	3.76	0	0
Lauren Filer4 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	26.0	4	86	2	3.31	2	1
Nat Sciver-Brunt3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	15.0	3	29	0	1.93	1	0
Sophie Ecclestone8 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	44.3	8	143	5	3.21	0	0
Ryana MacDonald-Gay3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	19.0	3	69	1	3.63	1	0
Heather Knight0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	5	0	5.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	0	3/0
3	4	7/0
4	0	7/0
5	1	8/0
6	6	14/0
7	5	19/1
8	0	19/1
9	5	24/1
10	1	25/1
11	0	25/1
12	1	26/1
13	1	27/1
14	4	31/1
15	2	33/1
16	0	33/1
17	0	33/1
18	5	38/1
19	0	38/1
20	0	38/1
21	10	48/1
22	8	56/1
23	0	56/1
24	1	57/1
25	3	60/1
26	2	62/1
27	1	63/1
28	8	71/1
29	6	77/1
30	1	78/1
31	5	83/1
32	3	86/1
33	3	89/1
34	0	89/1
35	4	93/1
36	0	93/1
37	2	95/1
38	1	96/1
39	2	98/1
40	4	102/2
41	4	106/2
42	2	108/2
43	6	114/2
44	6	120/2
45	1	121/2
46	0	121/2
47	4	125/2
48	9	134/2
49	1	135/2
50	3	138/2
51	2	140/2
52	1	141/2
53	0	141/2
54	5	146/2
55	8	154/2
56	2	156/2
57	0	156/2
58	3	159/2
59	3	162/2
60	8	170/2
61	0	170/2
62	0	170/3
63	1	171/3
64	0	171/3
65	5	176/3
66	6	182/3
67	2	184/3
68	7	191/3
69	6	197/3
70	8	205/3
71	6	211/3
72	8	219/3
73	1	220/3
74	3	223/3
75	8	231/3
76	2	233/3
77	3	236/3
78	2	238/3
79	3	241/3
80	4	245/3
81	12	257/3
82	7	264/3
83	8	272/3
84	6	278/3
85	8	286/3
86	7	293/3
87	6	299/3
88	6	305/3
89	7	312/3
90	9	321/3
91	3	324/4
92	2	326/4
93	5	331/4
94	7	338/4
95	2	340/4
96	2	342/4
97	2	344/4
98	2	346/4
99	6	352/4
100	5	357/4
101	0	357/4
102	1	358/4
103	6	364/4
104	2	366/4
105	2	368/4
106	4	372/4
107	5	377/4
108	6	383/4
109	4	387/4
110	2	389/4
111	2	391/4
112	1	392/4
113	3	395/4
114	7	402/4
115	3	405/5
116	3	408/5
117	5	413/5
118	1	414/5
119	3	417/5
120	5	422/5
121	2	424/5
122	2	426/5
123	2	428/5
124	3	431/5
125	0	431/6
126	1	432/7
127	3	435/7
128	2	437/7
129	0	437/8
130	1	438/9
131	2	440/10

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EnglandversusAustralia

Australia won by 122 runs

Win chances before this match

Why

Australia

Fall of wickets