AustraliaversusScotland

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Scotland (1,741 vs 1,572 on our results rating)
• In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 2 and Scotland won 0
• Scotland are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Australia started on 75%; Australia batted first.

Australia's chances ranged from 58% to 100% during the match (Scotland: 0% to 42%).

Biggest swings

1. 1.4: BJ Currie to TM Head, TM Head out. Scotland up from 22% to 31%.
2. 3.2: BJ Currie to J Fraser-McGurk, J Fraser-McGurk out. Scotland up from 28% to 39%.
3. 2nd inns 1.5: AM Hardie to MA Jones, MA Jones out. Australia up from 78% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.