EnglandversusIndia

11 Jul 2026 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 56 runs

England20.0 overs257/3 India20.0 overs201/8 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

68%England32%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than India (1,862 vs 1,750 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and England won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 66%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

England's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 46%).

Biggest swings

1.4: M Prasidh Krishna to PD Salt, PD Salt out. India up from 33% to 44%.
3.4: M Prasidh Krishna to JC Buttler, six by JC Buttler. England up from 58% to 63%.
4.3: Arshdeep Singh to JC Buttler, six by JC Buttler. England up from 66% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England257/3 India201/8

Innings 1

England

257/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Philip Saltcaught · Suryansh Shedge · Prasidh Krishna 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Suryansh Shedge · b Prasidh Krishna	6	9	1	0	66.67
Jos Buttlercaught · Shreyas Iyer · Shivam Dube 12 fours · 8 sixes	caught · Shreyas Iyer · b Shivam Dube	131	64	12	8	204.69
Harry Brooknot out 4 fours · 8 sixes	not out	95*	45	4	8	211.11
Jacob Bethellcaught · Tilak Varma · Shivam Dube 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tilak Varma · b Shivam Dube	0	1	0	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	0	8.25	5	0
Prasidh Krishna0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	3	0
Prince Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	60	0	15.00	1	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	63	0	15.75	5	0
Suryansh Shedge0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	39	0	13.00	1	1
Shivam Dube0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	22	2	22.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	6	10/1
3	7	17/1
4	12	29/1
5	15	44/1
6	17	61/1
7	9	70/1
8	3	73/1
9	13	86/1
10	25	111/1
11	12	123/1
12	9	132/1
13	12	144/1
14	24	168/1
15	21	189/1
16	20	209/1
17	8	217/1
18	8	225/1
19	22	247/3
20	10	257/3

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