NorthamptonshireversusLeicestershire

10 Jul 2025 · T20

Grace Road, Leicester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Leicestershire won by 6 wickets

Northamptonshire20.0 overs171/7 Leicestershire16.1 overs173/4 Grace Road, Leicester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 50%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Leicestershire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 0% to 72% during the match (Leicestershire: 28% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: LV van Beek to TB Robinson, TB Robinson out. Leicestershire up from 51% to 66%.
2nd inns 0.3: DJ Willey to RK Patel, RK Patel out. Northamptonshire up from 49% to 62%.
2nd inns 8.6: GLS Scrimshaw to SG Budinger, SG Budinger out. Northamptonshire up from 26% to 38%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire171/7 Leicestershire173/4

Innings 1