**The County Ground, Chelmsford**
Photo: Paul Williams from United Kingdom
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

GlamorganversusEssex

7 Jun 2024 · T20

The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Essex won by 2 wickets

Glamorgan20.0 overs166/8 Essex18.4 overs168/8 The County Ground, Chelmsford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Glamorgan started on 39%; Glamorgan batted first.

Glamorgan’s chance of winning (%) · Essex is the rest

Glamorgan's chances ranged from 0% to 92% during the match (Essex: 8% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.1: MS Crane to DR Sams, DR Sams out. Glamorgan up from 29% to 56%.
2nd inns 10.4: MS Crane to MJJ Critchley, MJJ Critchley out. Glamorgan up from 55% to 89%.
2nd inns 12.4: M Labuschagne to SR Harmer, SR Harmer out. Glamorgan up from 65% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Essex chose to field
match referees: DA Cosker
umpires: Mark Newell, PR Pollard

Match history & source

On 7 Jun 2024, Glamorgan played Essex at The County Ground, Chelmsford. Recorded result: Essex won by 2 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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