ScotlandversusNetherlands

22 May 2024 · T20

Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Scotland won by 71 runs

Scotland20.0 overs158/7 Netherlands14.5 overs87/10 Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

42%Scotland58%Netherlands

Why

Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands
On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Scotland (1,571 vs 1,551 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 39%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: BJ Currie to SA Engelbrecht, SA Engelbrecht out. Scotland up from 67% to 78%.
2nd inns 9.1: CN Greaves to BFW de Leede, BFW de Leede out. Scotland up from 66% to 80%.
2nd inns 9.3: CN Greaves to W Barresi, W Barresi out. Scotland up from 81% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland158/7 Netherlands87/10

Innings 1

Scotland

158/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
George Munseycaught · Logan van Beek · Vivian Kingma 4 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Logan van Beek · b Vivian Kingma	72	44	4	6	163.64
Ollie Hairscaught · Michael Levitt · Logan van Beek 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Michael Levitt · b Logan van Beek	15	17	3	0	88.24
Charlie Tearbowled · Logan van Beek 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Logan van Beek	9	11	1	0	81.82
Richie Berringtoncaught · Scott Edwards · Logan van Beek 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Logan van Beek	0	2	0	0	0.00
Matty Crosscaught · Vikramjit Singh · Tim Pringle 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Vikramjit Singh · b Tim Pringle	14	14	1	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	16	0	5.33	0	1
Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	1	4.33	0	0
Logan van Beek0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	3	3.25	2	0
Kyle Klein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	1	10.75	0	0
Tim Pringle0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	1	13.00	0	0
Bas de Leede0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	3	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	1	3/0
3	9	12/0
4	9	21/0
5	2	23/1
6	6	29/1
7	21	50/1
8	15	65/1
9	8	73/1
10	3	76/3
11	14	90/3
12	13	103/3
13	6	109/3
14	3	112/4
15	12	124/5
16	5	129/6
17	4	133/6
18	7	140/7
19	5	145/7
20	13	158/7

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