ScotlandversusNetherlands

22 May 2024 · T20

Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Scotland won by 71 runs

Scotland20.0 overs158/7 Netherlands14.5 overs87/10 Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

42%Scotland58%Netherlands

Why

Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands
On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Scotland (1,571 vs 1,551 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 39%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: BJ Currie to SA Engelbrecht, SA Engelbrecht out. Scotland up from 67% to 78%.
2nd inns 9.1: CN Greaves to BFW de Leede, BFW de Leede out. Scotland up from 66% to 80%.
2nd inns 9.3: CN Greaves to W Barresi, W Barresi out. Scotland up from 81% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland158/7 Netherlands87/10

Innings 2

Netherlands

87/1014.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael Levittcaught and bowled · Chris Sole 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Chris Sole	1	3	0	0	33.33
Vikramjit Singhlbw · Michael Leask 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Michael Leask	3	5	0	0	60.00
Sybrand Engelbrechtbowled · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Brad Currie	2	2	0	0	100.00
Bas de Leedelbw · Chris Greaves 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Chris Greaves	27	27	3	0	100.00
Scott Edwardscaught · Chris Sole · Brad Currie 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Chris Sole · b Brad Currie	29

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Michael Leask0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	7	1	7.00	3	0
Chris Sole0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	1	9.50	0	0
Brad Currie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	12	2	4.00	0	0
Gavin Main0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	0	2
Mark Watt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	12	4	3.13	0	0
Chris Greaves0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	2	4.33	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	9	16/2
3	3	19/3
4	10	29/3
5	1	30/3
6	14	44/3
7	3	47/3
8	8	55/3
9	6	61/3
10	2	63/5
11	8	71/6
12	2	73/6
13	5	78/7
14	9	87/7
15	0	87/10

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