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UAE Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
12 Apr 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 46%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 0% to 55%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saskia Horleylbw · Isabel Toua 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Isabel Toua | 62 | 76 | 6 | 0 | 81.58 |
| Darcey Carterrun out · Brenda Tau, Vicky Araa · Sibona Jimmy 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Brenda Tau, Vicky Araa | 19 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 95.00 |
| Kathryn Brycebowled · Sibona Jimmy 4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Sibona Jimmy | 73 | 80 | 4 | 1 | 91.25 |
| Sarah Brycebowled · Sibona Jimmy 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sibona Jimmy | 20 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Ailsa Listercaught and bowled · Pauke Siaka 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Pauke Siaka | 20 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Sibona Jimmy |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Ellen Watsoncaught · Isabel Toua · D Lohia 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isabel Toua · b D Lohia | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 26.09 |
|---|
| Priyanaz Chatterjicaught and bowled · Pauke Siaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Pauke Siaka | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
| Katherine Fraserbowled · Pauke Siaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pauke Siaka | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Hannah Raineycaught · Sibona Jimmy · D Lohia 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sibona Jimmy · b D Lohia | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
|---|
| Nayma Sheikhnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sibona Jimmy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
| HJ Thomas1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Isabel Toua0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 59 | 1 | 6.56 | 2 | 0 |
| Vicky Araa0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 1 |
| D Lohia0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 3.81 | 0 | 0 |
| Pauke Siaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 3.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-30 (Darcey Carter, 7.0) · 2-138 (Saskia Horley, 26.0) · 3-178 (Sarah Bryce, 31.5) · 4-181 (Kathryn Bryce, 33.1) · 5-183 (Lorna Jack, 33.4) · 6-206 (Ellen Watson, 39.5) · 7-214 (Ailsa Lister, 42.3) · 8-214 (Katherine Fraser, 42.5) · 9-217 (Priyanaz Chatterji, 45.0) · 10-217 (Hannah Rainey, 45.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 20/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 28/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 30/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 34/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 35/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 36/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 41/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 44/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 47/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 51/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 56/1 |
| 17 | 9 | 65/1 |
| 18 | 8 | 73/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 76/1 |
| 20 | 7 | 83/1 |
| 21 | 9 | 92/1 |
| 22 | 10 | 102/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 106/1 |
| 24 | 12 | 118/1 |
| 25 | 5 | 123/1 |
| 26 | 15 | 138/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 145/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 148/2 |
| 29 | 10 | 158/2 |
| 30 | 12 | 170/2 |
| 31 | 3 | 173/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 178/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 181/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 183/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 188/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 190/5 |
| 37 | 5 | 195/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 200/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 205/5 |
| 40 | 1 | 206/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 209/6 |
| 42 | 4 | 213/6 |
| 43 | 2 | 215/8 |
| 44 | 1 | 216/8 |
| 45 | 1 | 217/9 |
| 46 | 0 | 217/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.