NottinghamshireversusLeicestershire

19 Jun 2025 · T20

Grace Road, Leicester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Leicestershire won by 4 wickets

Nottinghamshire19.3 overs156/10 Leicestershire17.4 overs160/6 Grace Road, Leicester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 43%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Leicestershire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (Leicestershire: 40% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.4: SB Wood to JM Clarke, JM Clarke out. Leicestershire up from 40% to 51%.
3.1: BWM Mike to JA Haynes, JA Haynes out. Leicestershire up from 52% to 64%.
2nd inns 3.5: M Montgomery to RK Patel, RK Patel out. Nottinghamshire up from 26% to 38%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire156/10 Leicestershire160/6

Innings 1