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Australia Women tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Women
23 Dec 2024 · ODI
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 85%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batescaught · Ellyse Perry · Annabel Sutherland8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ellyse Perry · b Annabel Sutherland | 53 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 89.83 |
| Bella Jamesbowled · Annabel Sutherland 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annabel Sutherland | 24 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 82.76 |
 Amelia Kerrrun out · Phoebe Litchfield, Beth Mooney · Alana King1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Phoebe Litchfield, Beth Mooney | 22 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 68.75 |
 Sophie Devinebowled · Darcie Brown2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Darcie Brown | 25 |
Australia's chances ranged from 77% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 23%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 41 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 60.98 |
| Brooke Hallidaycaught · Ellyse Perry · Alana King 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ellyse Perry · b Alana King | 27 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
 Maddy Greennot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 39* | 35 | 3 | 0 | 111.43 |
|---|
| Lauren Downcaught · Annabel Sutherland · Alana King 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Alana King | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazecaught · Alyssa Healy · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alyssa Healy · b Annabel Sutherland | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Rosemary Mairbowled · Alana King 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alana King | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Molly Penfoldrun out · Ashleigh Gardner, Alana King · Alana King 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ashleigh Gardner, Alana King | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Eden Carsoncaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Kim Garth 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Kim Garth | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Megan Schutt0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 6.20 | 4 | 0 |
 Kim Garth0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.3 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 5.08 | 2 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 39 | 3 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Ellyse Perry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Darcie Brown0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 4.29 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Alana King1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 34 | 3 | 3.78 | 2 | 0 |
1-43 (Bella James, 8.2) · 2-106 (Suzie Bates, 19.5) · 3-107 (Amelia Kerr, 20.4) · 4-149 (Sophie Devine, 30.2) · 5-189 (Brooke Halliday, 36.1) · 6-189 (Lauren Down, 36.5) · 7-196 (Izzy Gaze, 39.4) · 8-199 (Rosemary Mair, 40.2) · 9-214 (Molly Penfold, 43.0) · 10-215 (Eden Carson, 43.3)
Recorded target: 291 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 30/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 43/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 49/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 54/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 59/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 62/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 63/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 70/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 78/1 |
| 16 | 6 | 84/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 90/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 95/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 98/1 |
| 20 | 8 | 106/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 107/3 |
| 22 | 0 | 107/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 108/3 |
| 24 | 11 | 119/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 123/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 129/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 135/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 139/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 143/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 149/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 150/4 |
| 32 | 9 | 159/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 167/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 174/4 |
| 35 | 9 | 183/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 189/4 |
| 37 | 0 | 189/6 |
| 38 | 1 | 190/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 194/6 |
| 40 | 3 | 197/7 |
| 41 | 2 | 199/8 |
| 42 | 6 | 205/8 |
| 43 | 9 | 214/9 |
| 44 | 1 | 215/10 |
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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