EstoniaversusCyprus

19 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Estonia won by 31 runs

Estonia20.0 overs186/5 Cyprus19.4 overs155/10 Happy Valley Ground, Episkopi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Estonia49%Cyprus

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Estonia rate stronger than Cyprus (1,392 vs 1,330 on our results rating)
Cyprus are playing at home in Cyprus
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Cyprus won 4 and Estonia won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Estonia started on 49%; Estonia batted first.

Estonia’s chance of winning (%) · Cyprus is the rest

Estonia's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (Cyprus: 0% to 76%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Kamal Raiz to Arslan Amjad, Arslan Amjad out. Cyprus up from 51% to 65%.
2nd inns 12.4: Arslan Amjad to NK Tiwari, NK Tiwari out. Estonia up from 48% to 63%.
2nd inns 13.2: Ali Masood to MPGT Ketiyage, MPGT Ketiyage out. Estonia up from 69% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Estonia186/5 Cyprus155/10

Innings 2

Cyprus

155/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Cyprus batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
AUKDS Kalugalacaught · A Paul · S Gooch 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · A Paul · b S Gooch	33	17	4	1	194.12
J Chialoufaslbw · D Robson 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b D Robson	0	2	0	0	0.00
S Austincaught · A Paul · S Gooch 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Paul · b S Gooch	18	20	2	0	90.00
MPGT Ketiyagebowled · Ali Masood 3 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Ali Masood	41	27	3	2	151.85
NK Tiwaricaught · P Gheewala · Arslan Amjad 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · P Gheewala · b Arslan Amjad	19	13	0	2	146.15
R Mazumdercaught · A Paul · Arslan Amjad0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
D Robson0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	28	2	7.00	4	0
Bilal Masud0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	0	10.00	2	0
S Gooch0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	26	2	6.50	1	1
R Parkin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	31	0	10.33	1	0
Sahil Chauhan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	15	0	7.50	1	0
Ali Masood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	1	8.50	2	0
Arslan Amjad0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	18	2	18.00	4	0
K Vislapuu1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.4	1	5	2	3.00	1	0
A Paul0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	0	4.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/1
2	10	15/1
3	16	31/1
4	8	39/1
5	11	50/1
6	7	57/2
7	4	61/2
8	3	64/3
9	11	75/3
10	8	83/3
11	10	93/3
12	9	102/3
13	18	120/5
14	8	128/6
15	5	133/6
16	0	133/7
17	2	135/9
18	5	140/9
19	10	150/9
20	5	155/10

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