EnglandversusWest Indies

24 Jun 2026 · T20

Lord's · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 38 runs

England20.0 overs186/7 West Indies20.0 overs148/5 Lord's ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

84%England16%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than West Indies (1,755 vs 1,622 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 9 and West Indies won 1
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 81%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

England's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 22%).

Biggest swings

0.5: CA Henry to AE Jones, AE Jones out. West Indies up from 15% to 21%.
3.3: A Munisar to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. West Indies up from 11% to 16%.
2nd inns 5.6: CE Dean to DJS Dottin, DJS Dottin out. England up from 91% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England186/7 West Indies148/5

Innings 1

England

186/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Jonescaught · Afy Fletcher · Chinelle Henry 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Afy Fletcher · b Chinelle Henry	8	5	2	0	160.00
Danielle Wyattrun out · Jannillea Glasgow, Shemaine Campbelle · Hayley Matthews 8 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Jannillea Glasgow, Shemaine Campbelle	65	42	8	0	154.76
Sophia Dunkleylbw · Ashmini Munisar 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ashmini Munisar	14	11	3	0	127.27
Alice Capsey

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	1	12.50	4
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	0
Ashmini Munisar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	2	10.50	0
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	0
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	1
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	1	11.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/1
2	9	17/1
3	17	34/1
4	7	41/2
5	6	47/2
6	10	57/2
7	4	61/2
8	8	69/2
9	10	79/2
10	7	86/2
11	7	93/2
12	16	109/3
13	7	116/3
14	12	128/3
15	8	136/3
16	9	145/4
17	9	154/4
18	8	162/5
19	10	172/6
20	14	186/7

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