EnglandversusWest Indies

24 Jun 2026 · T20

Lord's · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 38 runs

England20.0 overs186/7 West Indies20.0 overs148/5 Lord's ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

84%England16%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than West Indies (1,755 vs 1,622 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 9 and West Indies won 1
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 81%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

England's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 22%).

Biggest swings

0.5: CA Henry to AE Jones, AE Jones out. West Indies up from 15% to 21%.
3.3: A Munisar to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. West Indies up from 11% to 16%.
2nd inns 5.6: CE Dean to DJS Dottin, DJS Dottin out. England up from 91% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England186/7 West Indies148/5

Innings 2

West Indies

148/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Hayley Matthewscaught · Amy Jones · Linsey Smith 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amy Jones · b Linsey Smith	14	17	2	0	82.35
Deandra Dottincaught · Alice Capsey · Charlie Dean 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Alice Capsey · b Charlie Dean	19	11	2	1	172.73
Shemaine Campbellebowled · Sophie Ecclestone 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone	20	18	2	1	111.11
Jannillea Glasgowbowled · Charlie Dean 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Charlie Dean	6

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Lauren Bell0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	4	0
Linsey Smith0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	1	8.75	1	0
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	31	2	7.75	1	1
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	1	0
Danielle Gibson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	0	0
Freya Kemp0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	4	7/0
3	5	12/0
4	12	24/1
5	6	30/1
6	16	46/2
7	4	50/2
8	12	62/2
9	3	65/3
10	4	69/3
11	2	71/4
12	8	79/4
13	7	86/4
14	4	90/4
15	4	94/4
16	9	103/4
17	13	116/4
18	10	126/4
19	7	133/5
20	15	148/5

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