BangladeshversusIreland

9 Dec 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 4 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs123/7 Ireland19.5 overs124/6 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

21%Bangladesh79%Ireland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,696 vs 1,414 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 6 and Ireland won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 20%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 6% to 90% during the match (Ireland: 10% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.1: Nahida Akter to R Stokell, R Stokell out. Bangladesh up from 47% to 67%.
2nd inns 19.4: Shorna Akter to L Delany, four by L Delany. Ireland up from 26% to 57%.
2nd inns 19.5: Shorna Akter to L Delany, four by L Delany. Ireland up from 57% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh123/7 Ireland124/6

Innings 1

Bangladesh

123/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sobhana Mostarylbw · Aimee Maguire 6 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Aimee Maguire	45	43	6	0	104.65
Murshida Khatuncaught and bowled · Orla Prendergast 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Orla Prendergast	12	12	2	0	100.00
Sharmin Akhterstumped · CE Coulter Reilly · Aimee Maguire 4 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · CE Coulter Reilly · b Aimee Maguire	34	33	4	0	103.03
Nigar Sultanacaught · Rebecca Stokell · Orla Prendergast 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rebecca Stokell · b Orla Prendergast

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
FA Sargent0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	0	5.25	0
Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	4	5.50	6
Alana Dalzell0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	6
Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	0	4.50	0
Aimee Maguire0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	3
Laura Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	0	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	6	12/0
3	10	22/0
4	11	33/1
5	13	46/1
6	3	49/1
7	4	53/1
8	7	60/1
9	12	72/1
10	7	79/1
11	8	87/1
12	8	95/1
13	5	100/1
14	4	104/2
15	2	106/2
16	5	111/3
17	4	115/3
18	3	118/5
19	3	121/5
20	2	123/7

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