BangladeshversusIreland

Ireland more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,696 vs 1,414 on our results rating)
• Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 6 and Ireland won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Bangladesh started on 20%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 6% to 90% during the match (Ireland: 10% to 94%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 18.1: Nahida Akter to R Stokell, R Stokell out. Bangladesh up from 47% to 67%.
2. 2nd inns 19.4: Shorna Akter to L Delany, four by L Delany. Ireland up from 26% to 57%.
3. 2nd inns 19.5: Shorna Akter to L Delany, four by L Delany. Ireland up from 57% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.