WarwickshireversusGlamorgan

3 Jul 2026 · T20

Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Glamorgan won by 7 wickets

Warwickshire20.0 overs184/4 Glamorgan18.5 overs187/3 Sophia Gardens, Cardiff ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Warwickshire started on 48%; Warwickshire batted first.

Warwickshire’s chance of winning (%) · Glamorgan is the rest

Warwickshire's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (Glamorgan: 40% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: N McAndrew to Z Malik, Z Malik out. Glamorgan up from 41% to 52%.
3.2: BI Kellaway to RM Yates, RM Yates out. Glamorgan up from 53% to 66%.
2nd inns 17.6: CR Woakes to SR Dickson, four by SR Dickson. Glamorgan up from 71% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.