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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Region Qualifier B · 2024 · Men
5 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 81%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 81% to 100% during the match (Indonesia: 0% to 19%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Ramdonirun out · P Kumbhare, A Patmore · Charlie Hara-Hinze 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · P Kumbhare, A Patmore | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
| Anjar Tadaruscaught · D Suzuki · Charlie Hara-Hinze 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Suzuki · b Charlie Hara-Hinze | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Gaurav Tiwaricaught · D Suzuki · P Kumbhare 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Suzuki · b P Kumbhare | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| PR Survecaught and bowled · P Kumbhare 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b P Kumbhare | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| KC Ramamoorthylbw · P Kumbhare 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b P Kumbhare | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| caught and bowled · b B Ito-Davis |
| 4 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
| F Banunaekbowled · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Danilson Hawoerun out · B Ito-Davis, Charlie Hara-Hinze · B Ito-Davis 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · B Ito-Davis, Charlie Hara-Hinze | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Ketut Artawancaught · R Sakurano-Thomas · S Ravichandran 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Sakurano-Thomas · b S Ravichandran | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
| Gede Priandanacaught and bowled · B Ito-Davis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b B Ito-Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| RM Kodanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Kumbhare1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 2.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Charlie Hara-Hinze1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Ravichandran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.5 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.45 | 0 | 0 |
| K Kubota0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| B Ito-Davis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| R Sakurano-Thomas1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Ahmad Ramdoni, 1.3) · 2-8 (Gaurav Tiwari, 2.1) · 3-8 (PR Surve, 2.2) · 4-8 (KC Ramamoorthy, 2.5) · 5-8 (Anjar Tadarus, 4.0) · 6-22 (Kadek Gamantika, 7.3) · 7-24 (F Banunaek, 8.1) · 8-24 (Danilson Hawoe, 9.1) · 9-25 (Gede Priandana, 10.0) · 10-29 (Ketut Artawan, 10.5)
Recorded target: 174 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 8/4 |
| 4 | 0 | 8/5 |
| 5 | 2 | 10/5 |
| 6 | 6 | 16/5 |
| 7 | 5 | 21/5 |
| 8 | 3 | 24/6 |
| 9 | 0 | 24/7 |
| 10 | 1 | 25/9 |
| 11 | 4 | 29/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.