South AfricaversusNew Zealand

22 Mar 2026 · T20

Wellington Regional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 19 runs

South Africa20.0 overs164/5 New Zealand18.5 overs145/10 Wellington Regional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

31%South Africa69%New Zealand

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 7 and South Africa won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than South Africa (1,713 vs 1,666 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 29%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 14% to 98% during the match (New Zealand: 2% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.5: OEG Baartman to JDS Neesham, JDS Neesham out. South Africa up from 32% to 56%.
2nd inns 13.2: KA Maharaj to NF Kelly, NF Kelly out. South Africa up from 32% to 60%.
2nd inns 13.5: KA Maharaj to CE McConchie, CE McConchie out. South Africa up from 61% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa164/5 New Zealand145/10

Innings 2

New Zealand

145/1018.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tim Robinsoncaught · Rubin Hermann · Gerald Coetzee 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Rubin Hermann · b Gerald Coetzee	32	22	4	1	145.45
Katene Clarkecaught · Rubin Hermann · Wiaan Mulder 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rubin Hermann · b Wiaan Mulder	9	5	2	0	180.00
Dane Cleaverbowled · Prenelan Subrayen 2 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Prenelan Subrayen	26	16	2	2	162.50
Nick Kellycaught · Rubin Hermann · Keshav Maharaj 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rubin Hermann · b Keshav Maharaj	19	20	2	0	95.00
Bevon Jacobsbowled · Prenelan Subrayen 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Prenelan Subrayen	3	5	0	0	60.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
George Linde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	0
Gerald Coetzee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	31	3	8.09	0
Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	1	10.00	2
Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	1
Prenelan Subrayen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	2	4.33	0
Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	15	15/0
2	10	25/0
3	7	32/1
4	11	43/1
5	9	52/1
6	11	63/2
7	7	70/2
8	5	75/2
9	3	78/3
10	10	88/3
11	3	91/4
12	5	96/5
13	15	111/5
14	2	113/7
15	9	122/8
16	8	130/8
17	4	134/9
18	5	139/9
19	6	145/10

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