Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusTrinbago Knight Riders

5 Sept 2024 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons won by 6 runs

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs176/6 Trinbago Knight Riders20.0 overs170/9 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 37%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · Trinbago Knight Riders is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 37% to 95% during the match (Trinbago Knight Riders: 5% to 63%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.3: Mohammad Amir to KA Pollard, six by KA Pollard. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 34% to 54%.
2nd inns 16.4: Mohammad Amir to KA Pollard, KA Pollard out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 46% to 63%.
2nd inns 18.1: SK Springer to KU Carty, KU Carty out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 61% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons176/6 Trinbago Knight Riders170/9

Innings 1