NorthamptonshireversusDurham

18 Jul 2025 · T20

Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durham won by 9 wickets

Northamptonshire20.0 overs203/5 Durham16.3 overs204/1 Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 49%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Durham is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 0% to 87% during the match (Durham: 14% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.2: Codi Yusuf to MP Breetzke, six by MP Breetzke. Northamptonshire up from 68% to 78%.
6.3: CF Parkinson to R Vasconcelos, R Vasconcelos out. Durham up from 24% to 32%.
9.4: NA Sowter to MP Breetzke, MP Breetzke out. Durham up from 33% to 40%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire203/5 Durham204/1

Innings 1