TanzaniaversusMalawi

26 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Tanzania won by 19 runs

Tanzania19.4 overs119/10 Malawi20.0 overs100/10 Gymkhana Club Ground, Dar-es-Salaam ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Tanzania more likely to win

60%Tanzania40%Malawi

Why

Tanzania are playing at home in Tanzania
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Tanzania won 1 and Malawi won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Malawi rate stronger than Tanzania (1,470 vs 1,467 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Tanzania started on 59%; Tanzania batted first.

Tanzania’s chance of winning (%) · Malawi is the rest

Tanzania's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Malawi: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

10.5: SZ Vayani to S Thakor, S Thakor out. Malawi up from 38% to 45%.
12.3: SZ Vayani to K Nassoro, K Nassoro out. Malawi up from 48% to 57%.
2nd inns 2.1: K Juma to G Kansonkho, G Kansonkho out. Tanzania up from 71% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Tanzania119/10 Malawi100/10

Innings 2

Malawi

100/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malawi batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
D Kansonkholbw · S Thakor 3 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b S Thakor	21	17	3	1	123.53
G Kansonkholbw · K Juma 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b K Juma	3	2	0	0	150.00
MA Baigbowled · Akhil Anil 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Akhil Anil	8	22	0	0	36.36
A Limdawalastumped · AP Rajeevan · Kassim Nassoro 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · AP Rajeevan · b Kassim Nassoro	5	15	0	0	33.33
Sami Sohailcaught · LS Barkania · HA Chohan 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LS Barkania · b HA Chohan	38	27	3	0	140.74
M Choambarun out · Abhik Patwa, Kassim Nassoro · S Thakor0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
K Juma0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	3	4.25	2
HA Chohan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	1	10.00	2
S Thakor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	2	4.25	1
LS Barkania0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	0	4.00	0
Kassim Nassoro0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	1	5.00	0
Akhil Anil0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	5	1	2.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	12	19/0
3	5	24/1
4	2	26/1
5	3	29/1
6	1	30/2
7	4	34/2
8	3	37/2
9	2	39/3
10	2	41/4
11	1	42/4
12	5	47/5
13	3	50/5
14	10	60/5
15	8	68/5
16	9	77/6
17	1	78/8
18	5	83/9
19	4	87/9
20	13	100/10

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