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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Region Final · 2025/26 · Men
26 Sept 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Tanzania more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Botswana started on 23%; Botswana batted first.
Botswana's chances ranged from 0% to 27% during the match (Tanzania: 73% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Modisecaught · MS Maker · S Selvaraj 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · MS Maker · b S Selvaraj | 25 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Vinoo Balakrishnanrun out · A Augastin, AP Rajeevan · Salum Jumbe 3 fours · 5 sixes | run out · A Augastin, AP Rajeevan | 68 | 54 | 3 | 5 | 125.93 |
| Karabo Motlhankabowled · LS Barkania 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b LS Barkania | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| M Kasselmanrun out · AP Rajeevan, Ally Kimote · K Juma 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · AP Rajeevan, Ally Kimote | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Tharindu Pereracaught and bowled · Ally Kimote 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Ally Kimote | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| not out |
| 3* |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 150.00 |
| Thatayaone Tshosebowled · Ally Kimote 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ally Kimote | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| K Pietnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salum Jumbe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| K Juma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ally Kimote0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| S Selvaraj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| LS Barkania0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kassim Nassoro0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-38 (K Modise, 7.3) · 2-49 (Karabo Motlhanka, 10.5) · 3-93 (M Kasselman, 16.0) · 4-118 (Vinoo Balakrishnan, 18.5) · 5-122 (Tharindu Perera, 19.3) · 6-122 (Thatayaone Tshose, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 36/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 39/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 43/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 48/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 13 | 63/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 72/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 80/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 90/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 93/3 |
| 17 | 10 | 103/3 |
| 18 | 8 | 111/3 |
| 19 | 9 | 120/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 122/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.