Rangpur RidersversusRajshahi Warriors

11 Jan 2026 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajshahi Warriors won by 7 wickets

Rangpur Riders20.0 overs178/4 Rajshahi Warriors19.1 overs179/3 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rangpur Riders started on 47%; Rangpur Riders batted first.

Rangpur Riders’s chance of winning (%) · Rajshahi Warriors is the rest

Rangpur Riders's chances ranged from 0% to 77% during the match (Rajshahi Warriors: 23% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: R Mondol to KR Mayers, KR Mayers out. Rajshahi Warriors up from 36% to 46%.
2nd inns 2.2: Akif Javed to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Rangpur Riders up from 67% to 77%.
2nd inns 7.1: Iftikhar Ahmed to Waseem Muhammad, six by Waseem Muhammad. Rajshahi Warriors up from 52% to 59%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.