Adelaide StrikersversusMelbourne Stars

20 Dec 2024 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 15 runs

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs165/6 Melbourne Stars20.0 overs150/9 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 58%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: HTRY Thornton to GJ Maxwell, GJ Maxwell out. Adelaide Strikers up from 40% to 56%.
2nd inns 8.3: MW Short to TF Rogers, TF Rogers out. Adelaide Strikers up from 51% to 70%.
2nd inns 13.5: J Overton to BJ Webster, BJ Webster out. Adelaide Strikers up from 71% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.