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Photo: Trentino Priori
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
11 Feb 2024 · T20
Adelaide Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 62%; Australia batted first.
Australia's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 44%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Tim David · Josh Hazlewood 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim David · b Josh Hazlewood | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Johnson Charlescaught · Matthew Wade · Marcus Stoinis 1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Matthew Wade · b Marcus Stoinis | 24 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 218.18 |
| Nicolas Poorancaught · AM Hardie · Spencer Johnson 0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · AM Hardie · b Spencer Johnson | 18 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 180.00 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Glenn Maxwell · Marcus Stoinis0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Glenn Maxwell · b Marcus Stoinis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Josh Inglis · Adam Zampa5 fours · 4 sixes |
| caught · Josh Inglis · b Adam Zampa |
| 63 |
| 36 |
| 5 |
| 4 |
| 175.00 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Matthew Wade · Spencer Johnson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Wade · b Spencer Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Andre Russellcaught · Josh Inglis · Marcus Stoinis4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Marcus Stoinis | 37 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 231.25 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdcaught · Glenn Maxwell · Jason Behrendorff 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Glenn Maxwell · b Jason Behrendorff | 12 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Jason Holdernot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 28* | 16 | 3 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseinbowled · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Hazlewood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jason Behrendorff0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 13.75 | 3 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Johnson0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 9.75 | 6 | 0 |
 Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 9.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 9.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-11 (Brandon King, 1.5) · 2-42 (Nicolas Pooran, 4.3) · 3-56 (Shai Hope, 5.1) · 4-62 (Johnson Charles, 6.0) · 5-63 (Sherfane Rutherford, 6.3) · 6-110 (Andre Russell, 10.4) · 7-164 (Romario Shepherd, 15.4) · 8-176 (Rovman Powell, 17.0) · 9-189 (Akeal Hosein, 17.5)
Recorded target: 242 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 20 | 32/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 42/1 |
| 5 | 14 | 56/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 62/4 |
| 7 | 13 | 75/5 |
| 8 | 4 | 79/5 |
| 9 | 9 | 88/5 |
| 10 | 13 | 101/5 |
| 11 | 9 | 110/6 |
| 12 | 13 | 123/6 |
| 13 | 9 | 132/6 |
| 14 | 11 | 143/6 |
| 15 | 11 | 154/6 |
| 16 | 11 | 165/7 |
| 17 | 11 | 176/8 |
| 18 | 13 | 189/9 |
| 19 | 6 | 195/9 |
| 20 | 12 | 207/9 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Wade: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
David Warner: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Behrendorff: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Marcus Stoinis: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Andre Russell: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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