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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier C · 2026 · Men
21 Aug 2026 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Germany more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 53%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Finland: 0% to 58%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Kohler-Cadmorelbw · PEA Karunarathna 5 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b PEA Karunarathna | 51 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 127.50 |
| Musadiq Ahmedcaught · AK Mohan · NM Salonen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AK Mohan · b NM Salonen | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 90.00 |
| Joshua van Heerdencaught · Hammadullah Shinwari · PEA Karunarathna 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hammadullah Shinwari · b PEA Karunarathna | 17 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 130.77 |
| Harmanjot Singhcaught · Faraaz Mehti Abbas · PEA Karunarathna 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Faraaz Mehti Abbas · b PEA Karunarathna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ahmed Wardakcaught · A Pusthay · Hammadullah Shinwari 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Pusthay · b Hammadullah Shinwari | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Fayaz Khannot out 3 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 51* | 34 | 3 | 3 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Muslim Yarbowled · Junaid Khan (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Khan (2) | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Shahid Afridi (2)caught · Zahidullah Kamal · PEA Karunarathna 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zahidullah Kamal · b PEA Karunarathna | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Ahmad Ullahnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amjad Sher0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 7.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Junaid Khan (2)0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 1 |
| NM Salonen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Hammadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| PEA Karunarathna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-27 (Musadiq Ahmed, 3.1) · 2-57 (Joshua van Heerden, 7.2) · 3-57 (Harmanjot Singh, 7.3) · 4-60 (Ahmed Wardak, 8.4) · 5-102 (B Kohler-Cadmore, 13.4) · 6-108 (Muslim Yar, 15.0) · 7-118 (Shahid Afridi (2), 17.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 34/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 48/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 55/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 59/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 62/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 68/4 |
| 11 | 9 | 77/4 |
| 12 | 8 | 85/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 92/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 102/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 108/6 |
| 16 | 4 | 112/6 |
| 17 | 6 | 118/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 122/7 |
| 19 | 15 | 137/7 |
| 20 | 7 | 144/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.