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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier C · 2026 · Men
21 Aug 2026 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Germany more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 53%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Finland: 0% to 58%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Pusthaylbw · PD Dabholkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b PD Dabholkar | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| AK Mohancaught · Fayaz Khan · V Jatinder Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fayaz Khan · b V Jatinder Kumar | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Zahidullah Kamalcaught · Joshua van Heerden · Ahmad Ullah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joshua van Heerden · b Ahmad Ullah | 10 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
| Faraaz Mehti Abbasbowled · Ahmad Ullah 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ahmad Ullah | 21 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 72.41 |
| Faheem Nellancherihit wicket · Muslim Yar 0 fours · 1 sixes | hit wicket · b Muslim Yar | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 250.00 |
| caught · Shahid Afridi (2) · b Ahmad Ullah |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| NM Salonencaught · V Jatinder Kumar · Muslim Yar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · V Jatinder Kumar · b Muslim Yar | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Madhawa Basnayakacaught and bowled · Muslim Yar 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Muslim Yar | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Hammadullah Shinwaricaught · V Jatinder Kumar · Muslim Yar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · V Jatinder Kumar · b Muslim Yar | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Junaid Khan (2)caught · Harmanjot Singh · V Jatinder Kumar 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harmanjot Singh · b V Jatinder Kumar | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 125.00 |
|---|
| PEA Karunarathnanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PD Dabholkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| V Jatinder Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 6.27 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Ullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Muslim Yar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (A Pusthay, 0.5) · 2-4 (AK Mohan, 1.1) · 3-27 (Zahidullah Kamal, 7.4) · 4-40 (Faheem Nellancheri, 8.5) · 5-41 (Amjad Sher, 9.1) · 6-48 (NM Salonen, 10.5) · 7-50 (Faraaz Mehti Abbas, 11.3) · 8-53 (Hammadullah Shinwari, 12.5) · 9-58 (Madhawa Basnayaka, 14.1) · 10-76 (Junaid Khan (2), 15.4)
Recorded target: 145 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/2 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/2 |
| 4 | 7 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 25/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 32/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 41/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 45/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 48/6 |
| 12 | 4 | 52/7 |
| 13 | 1 | 53/8 |
| 14 | 5 | 58/8 |
| 15 | 8 | 66/9 |
| 16 | 10 | 76/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.