PakistanversusBangladesh

24 Jul 2025 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 74 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs178/7 Bangladesh16.4 overs104/10 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

39%Pakistan61%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Pakistan (1,598 vs 1,507 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 7 and Bangladesh won 3
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 35%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: Salman Mirza to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Pakistan up from 59% to 71%.
2nd inns 1.4: Faheem Ashraf to Liton Das, Liton Das out. Pakistan up from 65% to 75%.
2nd inns 3.4: Faheem Ashraf to Mehedi Hasan Miraz, Mehedi Hasan Miraz out. Pakistan up from 77% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan178/7 Bangladesh104/10

Innings 2

Bangladesh

104/1016.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasancaught · Mohammad Haris · Salman Mirza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Haris · b Salman Mirza	0	2	0	0	0.00
Mohammad Naimcaught · Salman Ali Agha · Ahmed Daniyal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Ahmed Daniyal	10	17	0	0	58.82
Litton Dasbowled · Fahim Ashraf 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Fahim Ashraf	8	8	1	0	100.00
Mehedi Hasancaught · Abbas Afridi · Fahim Ashraf 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Abbas Afridi · b Fahim Ashraf	10	8	2	0	125.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Salman Mirza0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	3	5.00	2	0
Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	13	2	6.50	0	1
Ahmed Daniyal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	1	5.33	1	0
Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	1	6.00	0	0
Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	2	0	2.00	0	0
Hussain Talat0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	3.0	36	1	12.00	0	2
Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.4	4	2	2.40	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/1
2	9	14/2
3	6	20/2
4	4	24/3
5	4	28/5
6	1	29/5
7	7	36/6
8	9	45/7
9	5	50/7
10	6	56/7
11	2	58/7
12	7	65/8
13	5	70/8
14	8	78/8
15	3	81/9
16	21	102/9
17	2	104/10

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