UgandaversusKenya

18 Sept 2026 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Uganda won by 47 runs

Uganda20.0 overs197/7 Kenya19.0 overs150/10 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

64%Uganda36%Kenya

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Uganda won 8 and Kenya won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Kenya (1,679 vs 1,656 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Uganda started on 63%; Uganda batted first.

Uganda’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Uganda's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

2.5: S Gill to Anas Baig, Anas Baig out. Kenya up from 28% to 37%.
3.3: SO Ngoche to R Obuya, R Obuya out. Kenya up from 37% to 47%.
7.6: N Hirani to C Musemez, C Musemez out. Kenya up from 35% to 42%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Uganda197/7 Kenya150/10

Innings 2

Kenya

150/1019.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kenya batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Rushab Patelcaught · C Musemez · Juma Miyagi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · C Musemez · b Juma Miyagi	0	3	0	0	0.00
Dhiren Gondariacaught · Kenneth Waiswa · E Kasaija 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kenneth Waiswa · b E Kasaija	11	12	2	0	91.67
Rakep Patelcaught · R Lutaaya · M Musinguzi 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · R Lutaaya · b M Musinguzi	33	23	3	2	143.48
Gurdeep Singhcaught · J Baguma · M Musinguzi 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · J Baguma · b M Musinguzi	17	15	2	1	113.33
Sachin Gillcaught · Riazat Ali Shah · E Kasaija 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Riazat Ali Shah

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 10 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	39	3	9.75	10	2
Cosmas Kyewuta0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	3	1
E Kasaija0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	3	7.00	1	0
M Musinguzi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	1	0
J Baguma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	2	4.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	7	13/1
3	18	31/1
4	8	39/1
5	8	47/2
6	18	65/2
7	3	68/2
8	6	74/3
9	5	79/3
10	10	89/4
11	2	91/4
12	4	95/4
13	4	99/5
14	9	108/5
15	9	117/6
16	8	125/8
17	7	132/9
18	8	140/9
19	10	150/10

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