East Asia Cup · 2023/24 · Men

Hong KongversusChina

14 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 123 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs171/5 China20.0 overs48/8 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

73%Hong Kong27%China

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than China (1,424 vs 1,296 on our results rating)
Hong Kong are playing at home in Hong Kong

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 72%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · China is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (China: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

2.1: Tian Sen Qun to M Coetzee, M Coetzee out. China up from 26% to 35%.
2.3: Tian Sen Qun to Nizakat Khan, Nizakat Khan out. China up from 35% to 45%.
2.4: Tian Sen Qun to JJ Atkinson, JJ Atkinson out. China up from 45% to 58%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong171/5 China48/8

Innings 2

China

48/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

China batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Wei Guo Leicaught · Nasrulla Rana · Ateeq Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nasrulla Rana · b Ateeq Iqbal	3	14	0	0	21.43
Huang Junjiecaught and bowled · Yasim Murtaza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Yasim Murtaza	10	30	0	0	33.33
Deng Jinqicaught · Martin Coetzee · Yasim Murtaza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Martin Coetzee · b Yasim Murtaza	7	24	0	0	29.17
Zhuang Zelinbowled · Nasrulla Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nasrulla Rana	1	9	0	0	11.11
Tian Sen Quncaught · Dhananjay Rao · Nizakat Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dhananjay Rao · b Nizakat Khan	4	9	0	0	44.44

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Dhananjay Rao0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	0	3.33	2	0
Ateeq Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	4	1	1.33	0	0
Ehsan Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	1	2.75	1	0
Yasim Murtaza1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	5	2	1.25	0	0
Aizaz Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	9	0	4.50	1	1
Nasrulla Rana2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	2	0	1	0.00	0	0
Nizakat Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	2	2.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	1	3/0
3	2	5/0
4	2	7/0
5	3	10/0
6	1	11/1
7	2	13/1
8	2	15/1
9	7	22/1
10	0	22/2
11	2	24/2
12	1	25/3
13	0	25/4
14	2	27/4
15	0	27/4
16	7	34/4
17	2	36/6
18	3	39/7
19	3	42/7
20	6	48/8

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