ThunderversusNorthern Diamonds

19 Jun 2024 · T20

Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Diamonds won by 5 wickets

Thunder14.2 overs61/10 Northern Diamonds13.4 overs62/5 Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thunder started on 48%; Thunder batted first.

Thunder’s chance of winning (%) · Northern Diamonds is the rest

Thunder's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (Northern Diamonds: 49% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: LE Scott to FMK Morris, FMK Morris out. Northern Diamonds up from 50% to 59%.
2.4: R Slater to EL Lamb, EL Lamb out. Northern Diamonds up from 56% to 65%.
4.2: R Slater to S Smale, S Smale out. Northern Diamonds up from 74% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.