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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
16 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Argentina more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Argentina started on 79%; Argentina batted first.
Argentina's chances ranged from 61% to 96% during the match (Brazil: 4% to 39%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G Caisleycaught · P Baron · Hernán Fennell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · P Baron · b Hernán Fennell | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| LH Rodriguescaught · Santiago Iturbe · Santiago Duggan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Santiago Iturbe · b Santiago Duggan | 9 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 64.29 |
| LF Mullercaught · Santiago Iturbe · Hernán Fennell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Santiago Iturbe · b Hernán Fennell | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Yasar Haroonbowled · A Kirschbaum 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Kirschbaum | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
| W Maximostumped · Santiago Iturbe · A Kirschbaum 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Santiago Iturbe · b A Kirschbaum | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| caught · Manuel Iturbe · b Lucas Rossi |
| 20 |
| 19 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 105.26 |
| MFI Assuncaocaught · Manuel Iturbe · AAP Rivero 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Manuel Iturbe · b AAP Rivero | 29 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 111.54 |
|---|
| L Maximorun out · P Baron, Santiago Duggan · Santiago Duggan 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · P Baron, Santiago Duggan | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| R Averycaught · P Baron · Hernán Fennell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · P Baron · b Hernán Fennell | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| G Oliveiracaught · Manuel Iturbe · AAP Rivero 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Manuel Iturbe · b AAP Rivero | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| IC Simaonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Kirschbaum0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 4 | 0 |
 Hernán Fennell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 3.79 | 1 | 0 |
| Santiago Duggan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Lucas Rossi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| AAP Rivero0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
1-2 (G Caisley, 1.1) · 2-8 (LF Muller, 2.0) · 3-19 (LH Rodrigues, 4.2) · 4-25 (W Maximo, 6.3) · 5-31 (Yasar Haroon, 8.5) · 6-56 (Muhammad Saleem, 12.0) · 7-81 (MFI Assuncao, 16.2) · 8-90 (L Maximo, 17.2) · 9-95 (G Oliveira, 18.5) · 10-96 (R Avery, 19.1)
Recorded target: 108 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 12/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 21/3 |
| 6 | 3 | 24/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 28/4 |
| 8 | 1 | 29/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 31/5 |
| 10 | 3 | 34/5 |
| 11 | 14 | 48/5 |
| 12 | 8 | 56/6 |
| 13 | 7 | 63/6 |
| 14 | 9 | 72/6 |
| 15 | 5 | 77/6 |
| 16 | 4 | 81/6 |
| 17 | 3 | 84/7 |
| 18 | 7 | 91/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 96/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 96/10 |
Hernán Fennell: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alejandro Ferguson: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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