St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusBarbados Royals

6 Sept 2024 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Barbados Royals won by 2 wickets

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs153/8 Barbados Royals19.5 overs157/8 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 40%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · Barbados Royals is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 5% to 46% during the match (Barbados Royals: 54% to 95%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.5: Mohammad Mohsin to JO Holder, six by JO Holder. Barbados Royals up from 57% to 77%.
2nd inns 19.3: RD John to NRJ Young, four by NRJ Young. Barbados Royals up from 58% to 85%.
2nd inns 19.5: RD John to NRJ Young, six by NRJ Young. Barbados Royals up from 69% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots153/8 Barbados Royals157/8

Innings 1