SeychellesversusGhana

24 Mar 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Ghana won by 6 wickets

Seychelles19.4 overs72/10 Ghana10.1 overs76/4 Achimota Senior Secondary School B Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ghana more likely to win

28%Seychelles72%Ghana

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ghana rate stronger than Seychelles (1,420 vs 1,335 on our results rating)
Ghana are playing at home in Ghana
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Ghana won 1 and Seychelles won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Seychelles started on 26%; Seychelles batted first.

Seychelles’s chance of winning (%) · Ghana is the rest

Seychelles's chances ranged from 0% to 28% during the match (Ghana: 72% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: L Nyarko to STRA de Silva, STRA de Silva out. Ghana up from 73% to 81%.
2.2: L Nyarko to M Mariyappan, M Mariyappan out. Ghana up from 80% to 86%.
4.3: IKO Aboagye to Mazharul Islam, Mazharul Islam out. Ghana up from 84% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Seychelles72/10 Ghana76/4

Innings 1

Seychelles

72/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Seychelles batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
STRA de Silvalbw · Lee Nyarko 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Lee Nyarko	4	5	1	0	80.00
M Mariyappanlbw · Lee Nyarko 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Lee Nyarko	3	6	0	0	50.00
TKP Rajapakshabowled · Vincent Ateak 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Vincent Ateak	11	12	2	0	91.67
Mazharul Islamcaught · Frank Baleri · Isaac Aboagye 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Frank Baleri · b Isaac Aboagye	4	6	0	0	66.67
SR Mohanrun out · Obed Agbomadzie, Frank Baleri · Isaac Aboagye 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Obed Agbomadzie, Frank Baleri	5	5	1	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Lee Nyarko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	0	12	3	3.27
Nitesh Hooda1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	1	3.50
Obed Agbomadzie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	0	4.50
Isaac Aboagye1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	6	3	1.50
Vincent Ateak0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	1	3.33
BK Majji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	5	9/1
3	1	10/2
4	9	19/2
5	2	21/3
6	7	28/4
7	0	28/6
8	2	30/6
9	1	31/8
10	1	32/8
11	3	35/8
12	12	47/8
13	5	52/8
14	0	52/8
15	3	55/8
16	4	59/8
17	5	64/8
18	5	69/9
19	1	70/9
20	2	72/10

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