IrelandversusBangladesh

29 Nov 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 4 wickets

Ireland20.0 overs170/6 Bangladesh19.4 overs174/6 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

44%Ireland56%Bangladesh

Why

Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Ireland (1,476 vs 1,472 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 43%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 3% to 76% during the match (Bangladesh: 24% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.4: MJ Humphreys to Nurul Hasan, Towhid Hridoy out. Ireland up from 20% to 34%.
2nd inns 17.6: MJ Humphreys to Mohammad Saifuddin, 2 runs to Mohammad Saifuddin. Bangladesh up from 77% to 90%.
2nd inns 18.4: MR Adair to Mohammad Saifuddin, six by Mohammad Saifuddin. Bangladesh up from 75% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.