NetherlandsversusPakistan

7 Feb 2026 · T20

Sinhalese Sports Club Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 3 wickets

Netherlands19.5 overs147/10 Pakistan19.3 overs148/7 Sinhalese Sports Club Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

15%Netherlands85%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Netherlands (1,752 vs 1,524 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 2 and Netherlands won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 14%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 4% to 92% during the match (Pakistan: 8% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.1: LV van Beek to Shadab Khan, Shadab Khan out. Netherlands up from 46% to 72%.
2nd inns 18.3: LV van Beek to Faheem Ashraf, six by Faheem Ashraf. Pakistan up from 19% to 43%.
2nd inns 18.5: LV van Beek to Faheem Ashraf, six by Faheem Ashraf. Pakistan up from 31% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands147/10 Pakistan148/7

Innings 2

Pakistan

148/719.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhancaught · Roelof van der Merwe · Paul van Meekeren 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Roelof van der Merwe · b Paul van Meekeren	47	31	4	2	151.61
Saim Ayubcaught · Roelof van der Merwe · Aryan Dutt 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Roelof van der Merwe · b Aryan Dutt	24	13	4	1	184.62
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Michael Levitt · Aryan Dutt 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Michael Levitt · b Aryan Dutt	12	8	3	0	150.00
Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Kyle Klein · Roelof van der Merwe 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kyle Klein · b Roelof van der Merwe	15	18	1	0	83.33

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	33	2	8.25	0
Logan van Beek0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	46	1	11.50	0
Kyle Klein0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	23	1	7.67	1
Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	1	4.33	0
Paul van Meekeren1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	20	2	5.00	1
Bas de Leede0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.3	0	13	0	8.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	13	22/0
3	5	27/1
4	11	38/1
5	15	53/2
6	8	61/2
7	4	65/2
8	11	76/2
9	5	81/2
10	9	90/2
11	8	98/2
12	0	98/4
13	4	102/5
14	5	107/5
15	4	111/5
16	3	114/6
17	1	115/7
18	4	119/7
19	24	143/7
20	5	148/7

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