United States of AmericaversusBangladesh

23 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

United States of America won by 6 runs

United States of America20.0 overs144/6 Bangladesh19.3 overs138/10 Prairie View Cricket Complex, Houston ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

United States of America more likely to win

64%United States of America36%Bangladesh

Why

United States of America are playing at home in the United States
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, United States of America won 1 and Bangladesh won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, United States of America rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,594 vs 1,574 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

United States of America started on 61%; United States of America batted first.

United States of America’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

United States of America's chances ranged from 8% to 91% during the match (Bangladesh: 9% to 92%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: Ali Khan to Rishad Hossain, four by Rishad Hossain. Bangladesh up from 28% to 63%.
2nd inns 18.4: SN Netravalkar to Shoriful Islam, Shoriful Islam out. United States of America up from 53% to 87%.
2nd inns 19.3: Ali Khan to Rishad Hossain, Rishad Hossain out. United States of America up from 75% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

United States of America144/6 Bangladesh138/10

Innings 1