Rangpur RidersversusChittagong Kings

17 Jan 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rangpur Riders won by 33 runs

Rangpur Riders20.0 overs164/7 Chittagong Kings20.0 overs131/8 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rangpur Riders started on 57%; Rangpur Riders batted first.

Rangpur Riders’s chance of winning (%) · Chittagong Kings is the rest

Rangpur Riders's chances ranged from 31% to 100% during the match (Chittagong Kings: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.2: Akif Javed to Mohammad Mithun, Mohammad Mithun out. Rangpur Riders up from 53% to 69%.
2nd inns 6.5: Akif Javed to G Clark, G Clark out. Rangpur Riders up from 67% to 82%.
2nd inns 14.4: Khushdil Shah to Naeem Islam, Naeem Islam out. Rangpur Riders up from 62% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.