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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
18 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 50%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashyap Prajapaticaught · Aasif Sheikh · Aarif Sheikh 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Aarif Sheikh | 36 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 69.23 |
| Jatinder Singhlbw · Sandeep Lamichhane 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 41 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 83.67 |
| Aaqib Ilyascaught · Karan KC · Gulsan Jha 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karan KC · b Gulsan Jha | 29 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 87.88 |
| PS Athavalecaught · Arjun Saud · Karan KC 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arjun Saud · b Karan KC | 26 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 72.22 |
| Ayan Khancaught · Sandeep Lamichhane · Gulsan Jha 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sandeep Lamichhane · b Gulsan Jha | 9 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 69.23 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 7% to 76% during the match (Oman: 24% to 93%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Sompal Kami · b Karan KC |
| 17 |
| 21 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 80.95 |
| Shoaib Khancaught · Arjun Saud · Gulsan Jha 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arjun Saud · b Gulsan Jha | 26 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Fiaz Bhuttcaught · Rohit Kumar · Gulsan Jha 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Gulsan Jha | 8 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 32.00 |
|---|
| Shakeel Ahmednot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 24 | 3 | 0 | 70.83 |
|---|
| Jay Odedracaught · Karan KC · Gulsan Jha 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karan KC · b Gulsan Jha | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 41.67 |
|---|
| Kaleemullahnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 2.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 7.66 | 0 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 47 | 5 | 4.70 | 3 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Aarif Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-75 (Jatinder Singh, 16.1) · 2-95 (Kashyap Prajapati, 19.2) · 3-113 (Aaqib Ilyas, 24.3) · 4-129 (Ayan Khan, 28.3) · 5-159 (PS Athavale, 33.1) · 6-164 (Khalid Kail, 35.1) · 7-189 (Shoaib Khan, 41.3) · 8-198 (Fiaz Bhutt, 43.3) · 9-211 (Jay Odedra, 47.1)
Recorded target: 221 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 26/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 32/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 39/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 40/0 |
| 10 | 10 | 50/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 53/0 |
| 12 | 7 | 60/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 67/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 71/0 |
| 15 | 2 | 73/0 |
| 16 | 2 | 75/0 |
| 17 | 5 | 80/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 83/1 |
| 19 | 11 | 94/1 |
| 20 | 1 | 95/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 96/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 99/2 |
| 23 | 8 | 107/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 112/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 113/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 114/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 119/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 125/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 133/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 134/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 137/4 |
| 32 | 10 | 147/4 |
| 33 | 12 | 159/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 160/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 164/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 166/6 |
| 37 | 1 | 167/6 |
| 38 | 10 | 177/6 |
| 39 | 1 | 178/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 184/6 |
| 41 | 5 | 189/6 |
| 42 | 0 | 189/7 |
| 43 | 7 | 196/7 |
| 44 | 3 | 199/8 |
| 45 | 4 | 203/8 |
| 46 | 7 | 210/8 |
| 47 | 1 | 211/8 |
| 48 | 0 | 211/9 |
| 49 | 2 | 213/9 |
| 50 | 10 | 223/9 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
